Should I buy Agl Energy shares in Australia in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been tracking the performance of Agl Energy for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in Australia trust us to decipher market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes and do not constitute investment advice. In accordance with our ethical charter, we have never been, and will never be, paid by Agl Energy.

What is Agl Energy?

Agl Energy Stock Price

The price of Agl Energy stock is steady this week. The current share price is $9.87 AUD, with a slight 0.10% decrease over the past 24 hours and a 0.10% dip for the week. Agl Energy’s market capitalisation stands at $6.64 billion AUD, with an average 3-month daily volume of 2.02 million shares. The stock features a P/E ratio of 28.69, an annual dividend yield of 5.88%, and a notably low beta of 0.29. These figures suggest that while volatility is limited, Agl Energy may offer stable income potential for investors seeking defensive exposure.

Our full analysis of the Agl Energy stock

After a thorough review of Agl Energy’s latest financial results and its share price evolution over the past three years, we've synthesised a wide array of data—financial metrics, technical signals, sector market trends, and peer comparisons—using our proprietary analytical algorithms. This approach allows us to identify key opportunities and turning points with high confidence. So, why might Agl Energy stock once again become a strategic entry point into the Australian utilities sector in 2025?

Recent performance and market context

Agl Energy is currently priced at $9.87 AUD per share, showing only marginal decline over the last 24 hours (-0.10%) and for the week (-0.10%), reflecting admirable resilience in a challenging broader sector environment. While the past year has seen a price decrease of 8.19%, the company maintains a robust market capitalisation of $6.64 billion AUD. Over the last six months, Agl Energy’s performance (-13.57%) has been subject to industry headwinds, yet recent positive shifts, such as strong revenue growth (+15.3% YoY for the first half of FY25), underscore the company’s adaptability. Crucially, Agl Energy’s implementation of an ambitious renewables program and its accelerated timeline for coal plant closures have attracted renewed market optimism, as investors are increasingly seeking exposure to companies leading the Australian energy transition. The sector outlook is further buoyed by stable domestic energy demand, supportive regulatory changes favouring clean energy, and significant government incentives for decarbonisation.

Technical analysis

From a technical standpoint, Agl Energy’s share price is showing vital signals that warrant close attention. The 14-day RSI stands at 39.15, hovering in neutral territory but approaching levels typically associated with oversold conditions, which may precede a technical rebound. The MACD (-0.15) currently issues a sell signal, a reminder of the recent bearish phase; however, history shows that such setups often set the stage for a new upward momentum, especially for quality defensive stocks. Notably, Agl Energy shares are trading below their primary moving averages—10-day ($9.88 AUD), 20-day ($10.11 AUD), 50-day ($10.35 AUD), and 200-day ($10.89 AUD)—suggesting a short-term correction phase. However, the strong support levels identified at $9.80, $9.74, and $9.68 AUD have consistently attracted buyer interest, reducing further downside risk. The proximity to these supports presents an advantageous entry point for strategic investors, while key resistance points at $9.92, $9.98, and $10.04 AUD offer short-term upside targets. The potential for a technical bounce, combined with bullish medium-term fundamentals, sets the stage for renewed interest in the stock.

Fundamental analysis

Agl Energy’s latest half-yearly results demonstrate the company’s competitive strengths and underline growing long-term value:

• Revenue surged to $7.13 billion AUD for H1 FY25, up 15.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and reflecting robust demand across its core operations.
• Underlying EBITDA came in at $1.06 billion AUD, down just 1%, revealing strong margin control despite external cost pressures.
• Underlying net profit reached $373 million AUD, with a statutory net of $97 million AUD.
• Dividend yield stays attractive at 5.88% per annum, delivering consistent income, while fully franked dividends ensure added tax benefits for Australian investors.
• The company’s Price/Earnings Ratio is 28.69—a premium to some utilities, yet justified by Agl Energy’s scale, transition strategy, and market leadership.
• Notably, Agl Energy boasts the largest private portfolio of electricity production assets in Australia and is aggressively investing in 12 GW of new renewable capacity by 2035.

The business remains strongly positioned in an industry undergoing rapid disruption. Its brand, innovative transformation towards renewables, and disciplined investment in clean infrastructure reaffirm Agl Energy’s edge over many ASX-listed peers.

Volume and liquidity

Agl Energy maintains a healthy average daily trading volume of 2.02 million shares, ensuring robust liquidity. The presence of deep institutional investors, alongside broad retail participation, underpins confidence in the stock and allows for dynamic price discovery. A large and actively traded float also means investors are less exposed to unexpected price swings, making Agl Energy an attractive option for those seeking stability in an unpredictable market. This high level of liquidity supports both immediate execution for short-term traders and peace of mind for long-term holders.

Catalysts and positive outlook

Several compelling catalysts could propel Agl Energy into a new growth phase:

• Accelerated coal exit: The company is moving forward the closure of its coal-fired power stations to 2035 (from 2045). This bold move positions Agl Energy ahead of anticipated regulatory shifts and makes it a central player in Australia’s decarbonisation push.
• Investment in renewables: The commitment to 12 GW of new green energy infrastructure is not only ambitious but aligns perfectly with national energy policy and global ESG benchmarks.
• Expansion in clean technology: Innovations in grid-scale batteries and smart energy solutions signal Agl Energy’s intent to secure market leadership in a fast-changing landscape.
• Governance and strategic clarity: Recent changes in senior management and board oversight have strengthened the company’s credibility and focus, all while market analysts provide a price target of $12.10 AUD, implying a 22.6% upside.
• Supportive policy backdrop: Heightened government support for renewable projects, along with sustained energy consumption trends, further enhance the attractiveness of Agl Energy’s business model.

This convergence of transformational strategy, operational discipline, and favourable macro themes supports an optimistic and constructive market sentiment.

Investment strategies

For investors seeking optimal timing and positioning, Agl Energy offers an array of opportunities across trading horizons:

• Short-term: The stock currently trades near well-established technical supports, offering a potential technical rebound for active traders. Monitoring for bullish reversal signals and earnings event-driven moves could unlock accelerated gains.
• Medium-term: As the energy transition shifts from vision to execution, Agl Energy’s aggressive capex in renewables and cost discipline create asymmetric risk/reward. Investors holding over several quarters could gain from both valuation re-rating and anticipated positive earnings surprises.
• Long-term: With structural market dominance, a leadership role in clean energy, and robust dividend payouts, Agl Energy is well placed for patient, long-term investors seeking growth, yield, and exposure to Australia’s vital energy infrastructure.

A tactical approach would be to consider entry on or near dips towards technical support levels or ahead of major catalyst events, such as full-year results or strategic project milestones.

Is it the right time to buy Agl Energy?

Given its rare blend of scale, innovation, and discipline, Agl Energy seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking both sustainable yield and long-term capital growth. The current period of market consolidation offers an attractive entry as the company approaches a critical juncture in its transition story, with robust supports and technical indicators foreshadowing a likely positive turn. The fundamentals justify renewed interest, underlined by clear catalysts, sector support, and growing momentum in Australia’s move towards clean energy.

In summary, Agl Energy may be entering a new bullish phase, driven by operational excellence, forward-looking strategy, and strong market positioning. The company’s unique combination of stability and transformation makes it a standout candidate for investors looking to build conviction in the Australian utilities and clean energy space as the global energy transition accelerates.

How to buy Agl Energy stock in Australia?

Buying Agl Energy stock online is straightforward and secure, provided you choose a well-regulated Australian broker. You can either opt for spot buying—owning the shares directly—or use Contracts for Difference (CFDs) to trade on price movements without owning the asset. Both approaches provide efficient market access and the flexibility to suit different investor profiles. For a broker comparison tailored to your needs, see further down the page.

Spot buying

Buying Agl Energy stock for cash means you directly own the shares, making you eligible for dividends and voting rights. Orders placed through Australian brokers typically incur a fixed commission, generally around $5 to $10 per trade depending on the platform.

Gain scenario

For example, if the Agl Energy share price is $9.87, you can buy around 100 shares with a $1,000 stake, including a brokerage fee of around $5.

If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth $1,100.

Result: +$100 gross gain, i.e. +10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading allows you to speculate on the movements of Agl Energy’s share price without owning the stock. While CFD providers don’t charge a fixed commission, they make their earnings via the spread (the difference between buy and sell prices) and overnight financing costs if you hold positions beyond a day.

CFD Gain Scenario Example

You open a CFD position on Agl Energy shares, with 5x leverage and a $1,000 outlay.

This gives you a market exposure of $5,000.

✔️ Gain scenario:

If the stock rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: +$400 gain, on a bet of $1,000 (excluding fees).

Final advice

Before investing, always compare the fees and conditions of several brokers—costs, trading tools, and local support can significantly affect your results. Whether you choose to buy Agl Energy stock outright or use CFDs, your choice will depend on your goals and risk appetite. For detailed broker features, check our comparison further down the page.

7 Tips for Buying Agl Energy Stock

The latest news about Agl Energy

AGL Energy’s stock demonstrates notable stability with only minor movements over the past week. The share price closed at 9.87 AUD, with a slight 0.10% decrease both over the intraday and weekly periods, highlighting the stock’s resilience despite general market volatility. This stability has been supported by strong local investor participation and a 3-month average daily volume of 2.02 million shares.

AGL Energy reinforced its leadership in Australia’s energy transition with advanced renewable investment targets. The company reaffirmed its ambition to build 12 GW of new renewable energy capacity by 2035, ten years ahead of the original coal phase-out plan, receiving positive attention from regulators and policymakers. This strategic decision positions Agl Energy as the clear frontrunner among ASX-listed utilities focused on sustainability, supporting long-term value creation for Australian stakeholders.

Recent quarterly financials reveal double-digit revenue growth that outperformed analyst expectations. For the period ending 31 December 2024, Agl Energy reported revenue of 7.13 billion AUD, up 15.3% year-on-year. This top-line growth exceeded market forecasts and reflected both strong demand and effective portfolio management in the domestic market, further strengthening investor confidence in the company’s core operations.

Consensus analyst price target signals significant potential upside for local investors. The current consensus price target stands at 12.10 AUD, representing over 22% potential upside from the last close. The positive consensus has contributed to a renewed interest from institutional investors and is supported by guidance indicating EBITDA between 1.935 and 2.135 billion AUD for FY25.

Dividend yield remains highly attractive compared to peers in the Australian market. Agl Energy currently offers a 5.88% dividend yield, ranking among the highest for major ASX-listed utility firms. This continues to act as a key draw for Australian investors seeking both income and defensive exposure within their portfolios, particularly in the context of an evolving regulatory and energy transition environment.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.