Should I buy Bhp Group stock in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been tracking the performance of Bhp Group for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in Australia trust us to analyse market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. In accordance with our ethical charter, we have never been, and will never be, compensated by Bhp Group.

Bhp Group

Bhp Group stock price

The price of Bhp Group stock is rising this week. Bhp Group currently trades at $39.27 AUD per share, with a 24-hour change of -0.41% and a robust +4.51% increase over the past week. The company’s market capitalisation stands at $128.19 billion USD, supported by an average daily volume of 3.18 million shares. Bhp Group’s P/E ratio is 11.28, its dividend yield is 5.16%, and its stock beta is a moderate 0.73. With stable fundamentals and consistent trading activity, the stock presents appealing potential in today’s resource-focused Australian market.

Our full analysis on Bhp Group stock

After reviewing Bhp Group’s latest financials and evaluating the stock’s trends over the last three years, we have synthesised proprietary research combining key financial indicators, technical analysis, real-time market data, and peer group benchmarking. Our findings leverage both quantitative inputs and sector-wide developments to construct a robust, opportunity-focused perspective. So, why might Bhp Group stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global resources sector in 2025?

Recent performance and market context

Bhp Group has shown a marked rebound this week, closing at $39.27 AUD per share on the ASX. The current market capitalisation stands at $128.19 billion USD, reflecting resilient investor confidence despite a challenging year, which saw the stock dip by 15% over twelve months but recover 4.5% just this past week. Notably, the group’s solid FY24 financial report—exceeding analyst consensus on revenue, with $55.7 billion USD—has reignited positive sentiment. The announcement of record iron ore volumes in Western Australia underpins the group’s operational reliability. Sector-wide, the ongoing infrastructure build-out across Asia and renewed commitments to energy transition metals have created a favourable backdrop for large cap resource stocks in Australia, placing Bhp Group in a prime position to benefit from macroeconomic tailwinds.

Technical analysis

Technical indicators reinforce this bullish stance. The 14-day RSI is 82.87, confirming strong momentum and a short-term overbought condition, but also suggesting robust market demand. The MACD remains solidly positive (0.622), with both price and indicator trending above their signal lines. Recent price action sits above all the major moving averages: 20, 50, 100, and 200 days—all flashing buy signals. The current price is just above a critical support at $38.37 AUD, with resistance at the 52-week high of $46.23 AUD suggesting upside headroom. Notably, the technical consensus is a strong buy, with 12 moving averages aligned bullishly, and no immediate signs of reversal. This configuration historically precedes medium-term rallies for high-liquidity ASX leaders like Bhp Group.

Fundamental analysis

On the fundamentals, Bhp Group’s revenue grew 3.4% year-on-year in 2024, driven by record iron ore shipments and robust demand for copper, nickel, and potash—commodities tightly linked to both decarbonisation and global infrastructure cycles. EBITDA hit $29 billion USD (+4%), and the company has delivered an enviable EBITDA margin of 54% for the eighth straight year, highlighting best-in-class operational efficiency and disciplined cost control. Despite the headline net profit drop, low double-digit P/E of 11.28 stands out as remarkably affordable for such a dominant industry player, especially in view of the global rotation into defensive value and income-focused stocks. The current dividend yield of 5.16%—amply covered and supported by a clear capital return policy—reinforces the income appeal. Bhp Group continues to expand strategically, integrating exploration, production and downstream metallurgy, maintaining market leadership and ensuring continued earnings diversification.

Structurally, the company is an undisputed leader within the resource space, enjoying strong competitive moats by virtue of its scale, integrated operations, and exceptional balance sheet. Its business model and geographic positioning provide resilience, with a track record of navigating commodity cycles adeptly, and a strong brand recognised by institutional and retail investors alike worldwide.

Volume and liquidity

Bhp Group remains one of the most actively traded stocks on the ASX, with an average daily volume of 3.18 million shares over the past three months. This robust liquidity means tight bid-ask spreads and the ability to enter or exit positions efficiently—fundamental advantages for both institutional and individual investors. The free float is significant, allowing for dynamic re-ratings, especially during periods of heightened news flow or market volatility, and reinforcing market confidence in price discovery and valuation.

Catalysts and positive outlook

Multiple bullish catalysts are on the horizon. Bhp Group is strategically accelerating its exposure to future-facing commodities such as copper for green electrification, and potash for sustainable agriculture, in addition to its vast iron ore and metallurgical coal franchises. It also benefits from operational excellence, with ongoing cost optimisation and a focus on productivity across its portfolio. Recent ESG initiatives—including decarbonisation investments and sustainable mining practices—have further bolstered its reputation among global investors and should help to attract incremental capital.

Externally, macro trends such as accelerating global infrastructure investment, rising clean energy spending, and the diversification of supply chains beyond China have added layers of structural tailwinds. Analysts continue to see strong medium- and long-term demand for Bhp Group’s key products, while the Australian regulatory climate remains supportive for large, strategically important mining groups.

Investment strategies

• Short-term traders may be drawn to strong technical buy signals and the stock’s typical volatility at oversold-to-bullish reversal zones. Current levels just above major support offer an attractive risk/reward for momentum-driven plays.
• Medium-term portfolio builders could see value in the reliable income stream from the covered dividend, strong free cash flow generation, and the prospect of upward valuation adjustment as technical and fundamental catalysts align.
• Long-term investors may be especially attracted by Bhp Group’s leadership in essential metals for the energy transition, its disciplined strategic expansion, and its enduring ability to sustain high margins through cycles. Accumulating on dips or holding ahead of likely sector tailwinds could be well-rewarded as the demand for minerals crucial to renewables and infrastructure surges over the coming decade.

The current share price, sitting above $39 AUD and with a consensus target price of $51.14 USD, signals a potential entry point before further catalysts unfold—particularly for patient investors seeking robust compounders.

Is it the right time to buy Bhp Group?

All the evidence suggests Bhp Group is entering a new bullish phase, underpinned by strong technical momentum, operational resilience, and sector-leading fundamentals. With a high but secure dividend yield, undervalued P/E ratio, record operational performance, and well-capitalised balance sheet, the stock seems to represent an excellent opportunity for Australian investors looking to capitalise on the renewed strength of resources and global infrastructure cycles.

Given its market leadership, broad commodity mix, and visible growth drivers for 2025 and beyond, Bhp Group offers both upside potential and a defensive anchor for diversified portfolios. As always, investors should match their strategy and time horizon to their individual profile, but the current setup justifies renewed interest. In summary, Bhp Group stands out as a resilient, high-quality stock that may be poised for outperformance in the next market cycle—a strategic entry point that deserves close attention from all those seeking exposure to Australia’s world-leading resource sector.

How to buy Bhp Group stock in Australia?

Buying Bhp Group stock online is simple and secure through any ASIC-regulated broker in Australia. You can choose to buy the shares directly (spot buying) or trade them using Contracts for Difference (CFDs), each offering different benefits and flexibility. Both options are accessible from most modern investment platforms. To help you find the best solution for your needs, a broker comparison is provided further down the page.

Buying Bhp Group shares in cash

Cash buying means you purchase Bhp Group shares directly on the ASX, becoming the actual shareholder. Most Australian brokers charge a fixed commission per order, often around $5 to $20 AUD, depending on the account and order size.

Gain Scenario: Bhp Group Shares

If the Bhp Group share price is $39.27 AUD, you can buy around 25 shares with a $1,000 stake, including a brokerage fee of around $5.

Gain scenario:

If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth $1,100.

Result: +$100 gross gain, i.e. +10% on your investment.

Trading Bhp Group shares via CFD

CFD trading lets you speculate on Bhp Group’s share price without owning the actual shares. CFDs allow the use of leverage, so your exposure is multiplied with a small margin deposit. Fees include the spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and overnight funding costs if positions are held beyond a day.

CFD Gain Scenario: Bhp Group Shares with Leverage

You open a CFD position on Bhp Group shares, with 5x leverage.

This gives you a market exposure of $5,000.

✔️ Gain scenario:

If the stock rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: +$400 gain, on a bet of $1,000 (excluding fees).

Final advice

Always compare brokerage fees, trading conditions, and available features before investing to maximise your net returns. Your final choice between cash buying and CFDs should match your investing style, time horizon, and risk appetite. For tailored options, see our comprehensive broker comparison lower on this page.

Our 7 Tips for Buying Bhp Group Stock

The latest news about Bhp Group

Bhp Group's share price climbed 4.51% over the past week on the ASX. This robust market performance reflects renewed investor confidence, supported by strong technical buy signals and positive sentiment amid rising commodity prices relevant to the Australian mining sector.

Bhp Group achieved record iron ore shipment volumes in Western Australia in 2024. This operational milestone strengthens the company's supply leadership in global iron ore markets and highlights its highly efficient Australian assets, which contribute significantly to both local employment and national export revenues.

Recent technical analysis for Bhp Group shows a strong buy consensus. All key moving averages (20, 50, 100, 200 days) are aligned with purchase signals, and the MACD is positive – supporting the bullish momentum for short- and medium-term investors focused on the ASX.

Bhp Group outperformed analyst expectations with USD 55.7 billion in revenue for FY2024. This beat on forecasts, alongside an underlying EBITDA margin at 54% for the eighth consecutive year, demonstrates the company’s performance consistency and resilience – an important consideration for Australian institutional and retail investors.

The interim dividend of USD 0.50 per share for 2025 continues Bhp Group’s high-yield tradition. This dividend payment, scheduled for March, offers fully franked income to Australian investors and reinforces Bhp Group's appeal as a dependable income-generating stock on the local market.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.