Should I buy National Australia Bank stock in 2025?

Why trust HelloSafe ?

At HelloSafe, our expert has been tracking the performance of National Australia Bank for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in Australia trust us to analyse market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. In accordance with our ethical charter, we have never been, and will never be, paid by National Australia Bank.

What is National Australia Bank?

National Australia Bank stock price

The price of National Australia Bank stock is slightly down this week. The current price is $38.91 AUD, reflecting a 1.07% fall in the past 24 hours and 1.07% down over the week. With a market capitalisation of $118.87 billion AUD, the stock trades at an average volume of 4.84 million shares (3-month average), a P/E ratio of 17.37, a dividend yield of 4.28%, and a beta of 0.73. As a stable, blue-chip financial, it offers moderate volatility with attractive income potential for Australian investors.

Our full analysis of National Australia Bank stock

We have reviewed National Australia Bank's latest financial results alongside a detailed look at its stock performance over the last three years. By integrating a range of analytical sources—financial indicators, technical signals, market data, peer benchmarking, and our proprietary algorithms—this analysis aims to deliver a holistic and timely perspective. So, why might National Australia Bank stock once again become a strategic entry point into the Australian banking sector in 2025?

Recent performance and market context

National Australia Bank (NAB) has demonstrated remarkable consistency and resilience over the past year. As of 3 July 2025, the stock trades at $38.91 AUD, representing a +9.76% increase year-on-year and a +3.62% gain over six months. Although the past week saw a modest -1.07% retracement, this follows a period of outperformance. NAB’s market capitalisation is $118.87 billion AUD, clearly positioning it among the nation’s financial heavyweights.

Several positive events support the stock. The recent interim report exceeded analyst forecasts, underpinned by growth in commercial lending and steady net profit. Key sector trends remain favourable, driven by Australia’s robust post-pandemic recovery, a resurgent business credit market, and increasing consumer spending. Government fiscal stimulus, a stabilising rate environment, and renewed confidence in the broader ASX financial sector have combined to offer a favourable backdrop for NAB moving into H2 2025.

NAB is further benefiting from its continued investments in digital transformation and operational efficiency, helping it weather sectoral challenges and enhance its long-term competitive position.

Technical analysis

Technical indicators suggest NAB is entering a potentially attractive phase for buyers. The share price is consolidating just above the 200-day moving average ($38.82 AUD), which historically acts as a key support level and signals resilience during broader market corrections. The 5-day simple moving average ($38.87 AUD) recently crossed above this longer-term mean—a subtle sign of renewed near-term strength and possible early reversal from the minor recent dip.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 40.43, close to the traditional oversold threshold, hinting that any further pullbacks could be shallow and short-lived, often a precursor to a technical rebound. The MACD is modestly negative (-0.193), but trend momentum is stabilising, creating a platform for renewed accumulation.

Immediate support is observed at $38.62, with resistance around $39.12. These levels frame the current trading range, providing a reference for traders seeking to build positions during technical consolidations. The stock's low beta (0.73 over five years) signals that volatility is muted compared to the broader market, traditionally appealing for investors looking for both capital preservation and steady performance.

Chart structures observed since Q2 2025 suggest that NAB may soon enter a new bullish phase, particularly if the share price holds above the $38.80–$39.00 region, making this a classic scenario for strategic entry.

Fundamental analysis

NAB’s latest half-year results (H1 2025) underscore the bank’s durable operating model. The bank reported $10.33 billion AUD in revenue and a net profit of $3.58 billion AUD, up 1% from the previous year. Earnings per share came in at $2.24 AUD, comfortably ahead of most analyst expectations. These figures showcase NAB’s ability to drive stable, compounding returns even as the broader sector faces competitive and regulatory headwinds.

Valuation remains reasonable by historical standards, with a Price/Earnings ratio of 17.37 indicating balanced sentiment from the market. The price/book ratio (1.91) and an attractive, fully franked dividend yield of 4.28% (with a high payout ratio of over 75%) appeal to both growth and income investors in Australia. The stock’s payout policy—supported by robust underlying profits—highlights a commitment to rewarding shareholders, further enhanced by franking credits.

• Digital leadership: Ongoing “cloud-first” transition, investment in AI and advanced analytics.
• Market share: Second-largest bank in Australia by market capitalisation, a dominant force in both retail and business lending.
• Brand strength: Long-standing reputation and resilience across economic cycles.
• Innovation: Early mover on digital transformation, industry leadership in banking automation, and process optimisation.
• Geographic expansion: Strong growth in New Zealand operations (up 12.5%) and a leadership position in commercial lending, driving group revenues.

In summary, NAB successfully blends profitability, moderate valuation, and strong competitive positioning for investors seeking stable exposure to the Australian financial sector.

Volume and liquidity

Volume and liquidity metrics further reinforce NAB’s status as a core market holding. Average daily trading volume over the last three months stands at 4.84 million shares, ensuring high liquidity and narrow bid-ask spreads. With 3.05 billion shares outstanding, the bank’s substantial float supports active trading and dynamic valuation, making it an attractive cornerstone for large portfolios, ETFs, and institutional mandates.

Such liquidity is important for portfolio flexibility, allowing investors to size positions according to their needs and efficiently manage risk—especially in periods of heightened market volatility. The consistent market participation underlines broad investor confidence and reflects the bank’s ongoing relevance on the ASX.

Catalysts and positive outlook

• Digital and technological innovation: NAB’s ongoing migration to Microsoft Azure cloud, coupled with major investments in AI and data analytics, positions the bank to drive operational efficiency and capture new revenue streams.
• Commercial lending growth: Outstanding performance in business loans, where NAB leads the Australian market, offers a lever for sustainable top-line expansion.
• Cost optimisation: The current efficiency program aims to streamline operations, improve margins, and unlock value for shareholders.
• Product innovation and ESG focus: Ongoing digital banking innovation and firm commitments to ESG initiatives are expected to boost NAB’s appeal among younger and institutional investors.
• Strategic geographic expansion: Particularly notable is the robust growth achieved in New Zealand, demonstrating the bank’s ability to profitably diversify across regional markets.
• Resilient dividend outlook: The continuation of strong, fully franked dividends provides defensive value, appealing to income-oriented Australian investors.

• The Australian economy is projected to expand in 2025, with steadily falling unemployment and a healthy credit environment.
• Regulatory clarity provides stability for strategic planning and lending growth.
• The broader ASX Financials index is experiencing renewed inflows as investors rotate into quality, yield-generating stocks.

All of these elements suggest NAB is not only defensively positioned but also well placed to benefit from the next phase of sector growth and technological transformation.

Investment strategies

• Short-term traders: May find entry opportunities on dips toward the $38.60 support, seeking a rebound driven by robust fundamentals and sector flows.
• Medium-term investors: Can leverage upcoming catalysts, such as further digital implementation milestones or New Zealand growth surprises, as triggers for share price appreciation.
• Long-term holders: Will likely appreciate NAB’s commitment to technological leadership, disciplined cost management, and dependable dividends, forming a resilient foundation for compound returns.

Ideal positioning may be achieved after technical consolidations, particularly if the stock rebounds from the $38.60–$39.00 support area. Investors attentive to reporting timelines and sector developments may also benefit from entering ahead of key commercial announcements or interim results.

For diversified portfolios, NAB’s blend of consistent dividends, defensive characteristics, and exposure to technology-led banking transformation justifies renewed interest at current levels.

Is it the right time to buy National Australia Bank?

A balanced view of current data suggests that National Australia Bank seems to represent an excellent opportunity in the context of Australia’s transforming financial sector. The bank combines stable profitability, strong market standing, commitment to digital innovation, and an investor-friendly payout, all of which underpin its upside potential. Technical and valuation signals offer further comfort, painting a picture of a stock that may be entering a new bullish phase.

With a favourable economic backdrop, sector-wide rotation into quality stocks, and clear strategic catalysts ahead, the fundamentals justify renewed interest in National Australia Bank. In the coming quarters, key financial updates, digital milestones, and commercial lending performance appear well placed to drive share price appreciation and deliver sustained value for patient investors.

National Australia Bank stands as a compelling choice for those seeking diversified, innovation-driven growth and reliable income in Australia’s dynamic financial landscape.

How to buy National Australia Bank stock in Australia?

Buying National Australia Bank stock online is straightforward and secure when you use a regulated Australian broker. You can choose between two main buying methods: classic spot (cash) buying, where you own the shares directly, or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which lets you speculate on price changes with leverage. Both methods are accessible to retail investors on user-friendly platforms. If you’re ready to take the next step, you’ll find a comparison of top brokers further down this page.

Buying National Australia Bank shares directly (spot/cash purchase)

A spot, or cash, purchase means you buy National Australia Bank shares outright and become a shareholder, earning dividends if they’re paid and benefiting from long-term capital gains. Local brokers typically charge a fixed commission per order—often around $5–$10 AUD.

Share Purchase Gain Scenario

If the National Australia Bank share price is $38.91 AUD, you can buy around 25 shares with a $1,000 AUD stake, factoring in a typical brokerage fee of $5.

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth $1,100 AUD. Result: +$100 gross gain, i.e. +10% on your investment.

Trading National Australia Bank shares with CFDs

CFD trading lets you speculate on National Australia Bank’s price without owning the underlying shares. CFDs offer access to leverage (for example, 5x) and typically involve paying the spread plus overnight financing fees for positions held more than a day. This method is popular for short-term traders seeking exposure to price movements.

Example of a CFD Gain Scenario

You open a CFD position on National Australia Bank shares, with 5x leverage and a $1,000 AUD stake.

This gives you a market exposure of $5,000 AUD.

✔️ Gain scenario:

If the stock rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: +$400 gain, on a $1,000 AUD investment (excluding fees).

Final advice

Before making any investment, it’s essential to compare the fees, conditions, and features of different brokers—details of which can be found in the broker comparison further down the page. Ultimately, your choice between spot buying and CFD trading should be guided by your objectives, risk tolerance, and investing style. Both approaches make it easy to gain exposure to National Australia Bank’s performance in the Australian market.

7 tips for buying National Australia Bank stock

The latest news about National Australia Bank

National Australia Bank posts stable shares and outperforms earnings expectations for first half 2025. The most recent financial report reveals a net profit of $3.58 billion AUD for the first semester, growing 1% compared to the previous year and slightly exceeding analyst expectations. This performance is driven by robust revenue of $10.33 billion AUD and demonstrates continued resilience in the core Australian and New Zealand banking operations, reinforcing the bank’s role as a sector leader.

NAB declares fully franked interim dividend, maintaining shareholder return appeal for local investors. On 12 May 2025, National Australia Bank paid an interim dividend of $0.85 AUD per share, fully franked. The dividend payout ratio stands at a healthy 75.51%, and the yield remains attractive against other ASX-listed financials. The franked status continues to provide Australian residents with notable tax advantages on these distributed profits.

Strong capital and liquidity metrics highlight NAB’s ongoing financial robustness. Recent disclosures confirm stable capital adequacy, with NAB maintaining a CET1 ratio aligned with regulatory requirements and peer benchmarks. Such financial strength supports both lending capacity and risk management, bolstering investor confidence in the face of evolving market conditions in Australia.

Continued digital transformation and investment in innovation sustain NAB’s competitive edge. NAB’s ongoing deployment of its “cloud-first” strategy, migration to Microsoft Azure, and significant investments in AI and data analytics are transforming customer experience and operational efficiency. These initiatives position the bank as a leader in digital banking services across Australia, helping drive long-term growth and customer loyalty.

Positive outlook for Australian economic recovery in 2025 benefits retail and business lending activities. Market sentiment remains neutral to cautiously optimistic, with economic conditions favouring moderate expansion in the banking sector. NAB’s leadership in business lending, especially with rising corporate credit demand and expansion in New Zealand, offers strong growth prospects closely aligned with Australia’s broader financial system recovery.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.