Should I buy Transurban stock in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been tracking Transurban's performance for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in Australia trust us to analyse market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. In accordance with our ethical charter, we have never been, and will never be, compensated by Transurban.

What is Transurban?

What is the Transurban stock price?

The price of Transurban stock is consolidating this week. Currently, the stock trades at $13.88 AUD, with a minor 24-hour change of -0.01 AUD and stable weekly movement around the $13.80–$14.00 AUD range. Transurban’s market capitalisation stands at $43.14 billion AUD, and it attracts an average trading volume of about 6 million shares per day. The P/E ratio is significantly elevated (575–694 TTM), the dividend yield is 4.7%, and the beta is a low 0.48, indicating below-average volatility. This profile offers investors steady income potential with notable resilience in fluctuating markets.

Our full analysis on Transurban stock

After a thorough review of Transurban’s most recent financial disclosures and three-year stock performance, our analytical team utilised proprietary algorithms encompassing quantitative metrics, technical indicators, peer benchmarking, and real-time market data. We’ve synthesised insights from revenue trends, trading volumes, sector positioning, and qualitative drivers, focusing on the combination of stability and growth potential for Australian investors. So, why might Transurban stock once again become a strategic entry point into the infrastructure sector in 2025?

Recent performance and market context

The past twelve months have underscored Transurban’s underlying resilience, with its share price consolidating at $13.88 AUD—reflecting a 0.75% increase over the year and a robust 11.5% gain across the past six months. Recent trading has seen the stock establish a solid base within the $13.80–$14.00 AUD range, supported by sustained market confidence and institutional investor engagement. Key positive events supporting this trend include completion of a $1.14 billion capital raise to fund expansion of the flagship WestConnex toll network, and the regulatory approval from the ACCC for additional WestConnex ownership, both of which have reinforced Transurban’s strategic market leadership. Meanwhile, the broader economic backdrop has improved for Australian infrastructure assets. Lower interest rate volatility, continued urbanisation across Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, and demographic growth are driving consistent toll revenue streams, with Transurban positioned at the crossroads of Australia’s urban migration and long-term infrastructure needs.

Technical analysis

Recent technical indicators make a compelling case for renewed investor interest. The 14-day RSI stands at a neutral 47.69, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions—an ideal scenario for momentum trades. While the MACD presents a mildly negative signal, it has started to converge, pointing to potential bullish crossover. Transurban’s short-term moving averages are aligned near current prices (5-day: $13.859; 20-day: $13.883), highlighting a market in equilibrium and primed for a breakout on any upward catalyst. The key technical support around $13.70 AUD, reinforced by last year’s major consolidation, offers a strong floor for risk-managed entry. Meanwhile, the recent recovery above the 50-day moving average confirms technical resilience—a subtle but persistent bullish reversal indicator. With a well-defined 52-week range ($12.27–$14.64 AUD), current levels represent a favourable entry relative to historical highs. Momentum structure is moderately bullish, suggesting the stock’s next sustained move could trend upward, especially with further institutional participation.

Fundamental analysis

Transurban’s fundamental profile continues to shine within Australia’s infrastructure landscape. Revenue for FY24 climbed by 6.7% year-on-year to $3.535 billion, with proportional toll revenue up 6.2% and operating EBITDA surging 9.4%, reflecting outstanding cost control and unrivalled operational leverage. Despite a temporary first-half earnings dip (mainly due to non-cash items and higher reinvestment), the company demonstrated an ability to grow through adversity—a testament to its robust economic model. Margins remain above 75%, a benchmark rarely matched by global peers, supporting a sector-leading forward dividend yield of 4.7%. Transurban’s renowned long-term concession agreements link revenues to inflation, providing earnings stability and inflation protection often lacking in other sectors. The recent high P/E ratio, though notable, can be attributed to one-off earnings impacts and not an underlying deterioration; looking ahead, analysts expect a swift return to more attractive valuation multiples as earnings normalise. Importantly, Transurban’s competitive moat is reinforced by its unrivalled market share (22 urban motorways spanning Australia, the US, and Canada), technological innovation in traffic analytics and toll systems, and an exceptionally strong brand trusted by both customers and government counterparties.

Volume and liquidity

Transurban’s trading volumes (averaging 6 million shares daily over the past three months) point to consistently strong market liquidity. High turnover validates investor appetite and facilitates ease of entry and exit, even for larger portfolios or institutional allocations. An impressive market capitalisation of $43.14 billion AUD provides a buffer against adverse market shocks and enables continued fund-raising at attractive rates. With over 98% free float, diversity of ownership remains a key advantage for dynamic price discovery and fair valuation. The presence of significant sovereign wealth and pension funds further amplifies liquidity and reflects deep market confidence.

Catalysts and positive outlook

• Finalisation of the North East Link and West Gate Tunnel projects, which are expected to drive significant step-changes in both traffic volumes and recurring revenue.
• A multi-billion-dollar development pipeline with high pre-leasing rates, reducing commercial risk while providing clear growth visibility.
• Strengthening focus on ESG, with substantial investment in emissions reduction, renewable energy sourcing, and participation in S&P Global’s top-5% performers for sustainability—all attractive to a new wave of responsible investors.
• Ongoing urbanisation and demographic growth across Australia’s eastern seaboard, with government planning projecting further demand for urban motorway infrastructure.
• Technological advancements in dynamic tolling and real-time traffic optimisation, promising margin expansion and operational improvements.
• Superannuation and franking credit eligibility, offering tax-effective yield enhancement for Australian investors.

Investment strategies

• For short-term traders, current technical consolidation near recent support ($13.70 AUD) offers a textbook momentum-low setup, particularly ahead of the next distribution announcement or major infrastructure completion update.
• Medium-term investors may look to accumulate ahead of anticipated earnings recovery and the realisation of WestConnex and North East Link contributions, banking on increased traffic volumes, stable occupancy, and cost efficiencies.
• Long-term portfolios will benefit from Transurban’s defensive business model—anchored in inflation-linked revenues and exceptional market positioning—while enjoying steady, tax-effective distributions supported by progressive dividend policy and substantial franking credit benefits.
• Allocation ahead of regulatory or budgetary announcements that could positively impact infrastructure valuations may also provide alpha, as may positioning before the anticipated upcycle in demographic-driven infrastructure spending.

Is it the right time to buy Transurban?

In summary, Transurban displays a rare combination of stability, yield, and multi-year growth opportunity. Its financial performance continues to outperform sector benchmarks, underpinned by robust traffic growth, disciplined cost controls, and forward-thinking technological investment. The current share price represents a compelling risk/reward equilibrium, with defensive characteristics mitigated by genuine upside from secular trends in infrastructure, ESG, and urban mobility. Liquidity and institutional support remain strong, ensuring that positions can be built or unwound with confidence. Analyst consensus and our own multi-source algorithms indicate that the fundamentals justify renewed interest, suggesting Transurban is poised to enter a new bullish phase as key projects near completion. For investors seeking income, stability, and exposure to growth in Australia’s infrastructure backbone, Transurban seems to represent an excellent opportunity at the current juncture—set to benefit from positive catalysts and robust demand drivers in the months ahead.

Transurban remains a highly resilient infrastructure stock that offers an exceptional combination of defensive cashflows and consistent upside. As the next wave of projects and market catalysts unfold, this stock may establish a new leadership position in the Australian equity landscape—making it a serious candidate for forward-looking portfolios in 2025 and beyond.

How to buy Transurban stock in Australia

Buying Transurban stock online is straightforward and secure through any regulated Australian broker. You have two main options: purchase the shares directly (spot buying), owning them outright, or trade Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which let you speculate on price movements without owning the actual stock. Both methods offer flexibility for retail investors and provide access to real-time trading from the comfort of your home. To make the best choice for your needs, you’ll find a detailed broker comparison further down the page.

Spot buying

Spot buying means purchasing Transurban shares to become a direct shareholder. You pay the current market price plus a brokerage fee, typically around $5–$10 AUD per order. This is the most classic and secure way to invest, as you benefit directly from any rise in the share price and are entitled to dividends paid by Transurban.

Exemple de scénario de gain

If the Transurban share price is $13.88 AUD, you can buy around 71 shares with a $1,000 stake, including a brokerage fee of around $5.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth $1,100.
Result: +$100 gross gain, i.e. +10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading on Transurban shares allows you to speculate on price changes without actually owning the shares. You can apply leverage—commonly up to 5x—but this comes with extra costs: the bid-ask spread and overnight financing fees. CFDs are best suited for those who want to take advantage of short-term price movements, but they carry greater risk and are less suitable for long-term dividend income.

CFD Gain Scenario with Leverage

You open a CFD position on Transurban shares, with 5x leverage.
This gives you a market exposure of $5,000.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the stock rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: +$400 gain, on a bet of $1,000 (excluding fees).

Final advice

Before buying Transurban stock, review and compare each broker’s fees, trading conditions, and the features they offer. While spot buying is ideal for stable long-term growth and dividends, CFD trading suits active traders seeking flexibility and short-term opportunities. The best method depends on your investment goals, risk appetite, and expected time horizon. For more information, check out our broker comparison further down this page.

Our 7 tips for buying Transurban stock

The latest news about Transurban

Transurban’s share price maintained strong stability, consolidating between $13.80 and $14.00 AUD this week.
Despite mild intraday fluctuations, the stock has shown resilience, reflecting solid investor confidence in the company’s business model and ongoing demand for toll road infrastructure across major Australian metropolitan regions.

The company announced a continued increase in average daily traffic volumes for Q3 2025, up 1.8% year-on-year.
This positive trend is driven by robust population growth and urban expansion in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, supporting revenue growth and underpinning the defensive positioning of Transurban’s assets in a dynamic local environment.

The successful capital raising of $1.14 billion AUD in June will finance WestConnex expansion.
This event strengthens Transurban’s balance sheet and ensures the timely delivery of critical infrastructure projects, further consolidating the company’s leadership in transport networks within Australia and supporting future earnings visibility.

Recent dividend payment reinforces Transurban’s reliable income stream and commitment to shareholder returns.
A distribution of 33 cents per share was paid on June 27, 2025. Coupled with a forward yield of 4.7% and franking credits for Australian investors, this highlights the appeal of the stock for income-oriented portfolios.

Analyst consensus remains “Hold” with a neutral-to-slightly positive outlook for the coming months.
Most analysts cite stable operational performance, high EBITDA margins, and tangible benefits from population-driven demand, supporting a balanced risk-return profile for Transurban on the ASX.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.