Should I buy Origin Energy stock in 2025?

Why trust HelloSafe ?

At HelloSafe, our expert has been tracking the performance of Origin Energy for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in Australia trust us to decipher market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes and do not constitute investment advice. In accordance with our ethical charter, we have never been, and will never be, paid by Origin Energy.

What is Origin Energy?

How much is Origin Energy stock?

The price of Origin Energy stock is rising this week. The current share price is $10.81 AUD, with a 24-hour decrease of 1.01% but a weekly increase of 0.56%. Origin Energy has a market capitalisation of $18.62 billion AUD and an average three-month trading volume of 3.6 million shares. The P/E ratio stands at 13.18, the dividend yield is 5.52%, and the stock beta is 0.81, indicating limited volatility compared to the market. With its strong yield and stable fundamentals, Origin Energy presents attractive potential for income-focused investors in Australia.

Our full analysis of the Origin Energy stock

After a thorough review of Origin Energy’s most recent financial results and a close analysis of the stock’s multi-year performance, our team has integrated a range of perspectives—including fundamental metrics, technical signals, and peer benchmarking—using our proprietary algorithms. By triangulating public data with advanced market analytics, we can offer an in-depth view of both strengths and risk factors at play. So, why might Origin Energy stock once again become a strategic entry point into the Australian integrated energy sector in 2025?

Recent performance and market context

Over the past twelve months, Origin Energy’s stock price has shown remarkable stability, finishing at $10.81 AUD as of early July 2025. While the intraday change was –1.01%, the share price is up modestly by +0.56% over the week, and has remained steady across volatile six- and twelve-month windows, outperforming many sector peers during key market corrections. This resilience was underscored by Origin Energy’s better-than-expected first-half 2025 results, with underlying profit up 24% year-on-year and net income exceeding $1.42 billion AUD. Dividend policy continues to attract local and institutional interest, as evidenced by the interim dividend increase and a forward yield of 5.5%. The wider energy market has shifted toward renewables and firming supply security—two domains where Origin Energy now leads, thanks to its robust retail energy business, strong cash flow generation, and growing exposure to low-carbon energy sources. Improved confidence in the wholesale power market, confirmed by global credit agencies, further anchors a positive outlook for Australia’s integrated utility sector.

Technical analysis

Turning to technical signals, Origin Energy’s chart structure suggests that the stock is consolidating at attractive levels, preparing for a potential bullish advance in the coming quarters. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 48.92, supporting a balanced outlook with room for upward movement rather than any imminent overbought risk. The MACD at 0.01 is stabilising near the axis, implying a potential turnaround. Short-term moving averages (20- and 50-day) have offered mild resistance, yet the 100-day and 200-day averages now act as strong price supports at $10.63 and $10.53 AUD, respectively—key markers for a bullish reversal structure. Critical support levels at $10.58 and $10.32 AUD have been repeatedly defended on recent pullbacks, confirming continued buying interest and pointing to a likely base for any renewed uptrend. The chart’s formation, together with supportive long-term momentum, signals that Origin Energy could soon enter a new technical phase that supports higher price targets into 2025.

Fundamental analysis

Fundamentally, Origin Energy stands as a pillar of stability and innovation within Australia’s energy sector. Recorded revenues of $16.97 billion AUD and net earnings per share of $0.82 AUD over the trailing twelve months reflect both scale and profitability. The company’s core competitive strengths are threefold: its dominating retail position with a 33% national market share (serving nearly 4 million customers), diversified generation assets totalling 6,000 MW, and an accretive 27.5% stake in Australia Pacific LNG—a key source of high-margin earnings and dividend flows. Current valuation remains undemanding, with a trailing P/E ratio of 13.18, providing a highly attractive entry multiple compared with both the company’s historic mean and other ASX-listed utilities with lower growth prospects. Recent EBITDA growth guidance calls for a 62% lift in FY25, a testament to improved operational efficiency, natural gas availability, and disciplined cost controls. Origin’s strategy is centred on the “Origin Zero” initiative, accelerating deployment of renewable generation and providing a springboard for future earnings growth as Australia pursues ambitious decarbonisation goals. Wide moats in retail, integrated systems, and progressive technology adaptation further elevate Origin’s investment case beyond most competitors in the sector.

Volume and liquidity

The liquidity profile of Origin Energy is another factor supporting a positive near-term and medium-term outlook. With a three-month average trading volume of 3.6 million shares daily and a free float primarily in the hands of individual and institutional investors, price discovery remains efficient and volatility is well managed. The stability conferred by a high market capitalisation ($18.62 billion AUD), combined with an active, diverse shareholder base, creates an environment where both major inflows and outflows are absorbed without disruptive swings. This dynamic has allowed the share price to reset higher during 2024–25, suggesting that investor appetite remains robust and the market is poised to re-rate the company should earnings growth and renewables execution continue.

Catalysts and positive outlook

• Renewable energy acceleration: The Yanco Delta wind farm (1.5 GW), one of the largest onshore wind projects in New South Wales, is progressing swiftly and is projected to bolster earnings and further diversify the generation asset portfolio.
• “Origin Zero” program: The focus on clean energy is transforming the company into a frontrunner in Australia’s energy transition, increasing eligibility for government incentives and enhancing long-term brand value.
• Strong LNG performance: Australia Pacific LNG continues to deliver record payouts—annual distributions soared to $797 million AUD, offering a reliable and growing cash stream even amidst commodity price cycles.
• Fitch ratings reaffirmed: In April 2025, Origin’s investment-grade credit rating (BBB, stable outlook) was reaffirmed, underlining financial strength and prudent capital management through the cycle.
• Customer portfolio expansion: Origin leads Australia’s residential and business retail segments, acquiring new customers and holding strong in competitive tenders.

With statutory results repeatedly beating analyst expectations, the stage is set for further earnings upgrades, share buybacks, or additional dividend hikes. Sector-wide macro tailwinds—including rising demand for renewables, supportive regulatory frameworks, and demographic growth—further consolidate Origin’s position as a central beneficiary of Australia’s evolving energy landscape.

Investment strategies

• Short-term positioning: The stock currently trades near the 100- and 200-day moving averages, frequently an ideal technical zone for tactical buys ahead of forecasted catalysts such as half-year or full-year earnings, or major project announcements.
• Medium-term growth: Capital gains potential is strengthened by upward revisions to profit guidance and the likelihood of further sector consolidation, mergers, or renewables-linked contracts.
• Long-term conviction: The company’s pivotal role in national energy policy, robust infrastructure base, and significant headroom for decarbonisation-driven growth anchor Origin Energy as an attractive core holding for multi-year investors seeking yield plus capital appreciation.

Those waiting for a pullback may find that recurring support in the $10.50–$10.80 AUD zone historically limits downside, while any upside surprise—such as an M&A deal or positive regulatory news—can result in rapid revaluation. For those who prize stable income streams, Origin’s fully franked dividends add further encouragement.

Is it the right time to buy Origin Energy?

In summary, Origin Energy’s resilience is powered by robust earnings, leading market position, smart diversification, and an expanding renewable presence—qualities that are especially prized in Australia’s changing energy environment. With solid technical support, a compelling dividend yield, and clear operational momentum, the stock seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking not only income, but diversified exposure to both traditional and transitional energy markets. If the company continues to deliver on execution and capital discipline, significant upside may be on the horizon as investor sentiment, policy support, and sector growth align. For these reasons, Origin Energy deserves renewed interest and, for many portfolios, may be entering a promising new bullish phase—one where fundamental and technical catalysts combine to justify serious consideration for a buy-side approach.

How to Buy Origin Energy Stock

Buying Origin Energy stock online in Australia is convenient and highly secure when you use a regulated broker. Investors can choose between spot (cash) buying, for direct share ownership, or trading as CFDs for leveraged exposure and flexibility. The process is quick—most brokers offer an intuitive platform and AUD accounts. Each method suits different objectives and risk profiles. For a detailed comparison of brokers' features and fees, don’t miss the dedicated section further down this page.

Spot buying

Buying Origin Energy shares with cash gives you full ownership and shareholder rights, including eligibility for dividends. Most Australian brokers charge a fixed commission per order, generally around $5 to $10 AUD.

Gain scenario

If the Origin Energy share price is 10.81 AUD, you can buy around 92 shares with a $1,000 stake, including a brokerage fee of around $5.

If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth $1,100.

Result: +$100 gross gain, i.e. +10% on your investment.

This method is well suited for investors seeking to benefit from long-term company performance and regular income.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading on Origin Energy shares lets you speculate on rises or falls in share price without owning the stock directly. You pay a spread (the broker’s margin) and, if you hold positions overnight, small daily financing fees.

Gain scenario for a leveraged CFD position

You open a CFD position on Origin Energy shares, with 5x leverage. This gives you a market exposure of $5,000.

Gain scenario: If the stock rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: +$400 gain, on a bet of $1,000 (excluding fees).

CFDs are ideal for active traders looking for short-term opportunities, but they carry increased risk due to leverage.

Final advice

Before investing in Origin Energy, always compare broker fees, minimums, and support to find the best fit for you. Whether you prefer direct share ownership or leveraged trading, your decision should align with your financial goals and risk appetite. For greater clarity, use our broker comparison tool featured below.

Our 7 tips for buying Origin Energy stock

The latest news about Origin Energy

Origin Energy posts a 0.56% share price gain over the past week, outpacing the broader utilities sector. This positive momentum is supported by resilient trading volumes—averaging 3.6 million shares daily on the ASX—and reflects the market’s constructive sentiment towards the company’s mid-year results and outlook.

Strong first-half 2025 financials drive renewed institutional and retail interest in Origin Energy. Underlying profit rose to 924 million AUD, up 24% year-on-year, and total revenue for the trailing twelve months reached 16.97 billion AUD, both exceeding the expectations of analysts and reinforcing confidence in the group’s strategic direction.

Origin Energy advances in Australian renewables with Origin Zero and the major Yanco Delta wind project. The company is accelerating the transition to clean energy, highlighted by the Yanco Delta wind farm development (1.5 GW capacity) in NSW Renewable Energy Zones—a move that aligns strongly with national decarbonisation policies and positions Origin Energy as a key player in regional energy transformation.

Annual dividend yield reaches 5.52% with payments fully franked to benefit Australian shareholders. Recent increases in interim and annual dividends, including a 0.30 AUD per share interim payout, underline Origin Energy’s commitment to generous shareholder returns, supported by robust cash flows and steady distributions from Australia Pacific LNG.

Fitch Ratings reaffirms Origin Energy’s investment-grade credit rating with a stable outlook. Following thorough assessments of Origin Energy’s capital structure and funding resilience, Fitch maintained its BBB rating in April 2025, ensuring ongoing access to low-cost capital and supporting future investment and growth across Australia.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.