Origin Energy

Should I buy Origin Energy stock in 2025?

P. Laurore
P. Laurore Last updated: 3 May 2025

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Origin Energy
4.2
hellosafe-logoScore

Is Origin Energy stock a buy right now?

As of early May 2025, Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) trades at around AUD 10.86 per share, with recent daily trading volumes averaging just under 4 million shares. The company recently reported a resilient statutory profit of AUD 1,017 million, slight growth in both customer accounts and energy sales, and steady cash returns to shareholders, supported by a fully franked dividend yield of 5.3%. Notably, Origin has accelerated its pivot towards renewable energy, including major investments in battery storage and the landmark approval of the Southern Hemisphere’s largest battery project at Eraring. While commodity price volatility and weather disruptions have had manageable impacts on quarterly performance, investor sentiment remains constructive, buoyed by Origin’s robust integrated business model and momentum in renewables. Technical indicators signal a strong positive trend, though recent overbought readings may suggest near-term volatility, providing a window for considered entry. With Australia’s energy sector undergoing rapid transformation, Origin Energy’s blend of reliable revenues, dividend strength, and exposure to growth areas is recognised by the consensus of over 32 national and international banks, who set a 12-month target price near AUD 14.10. For investors seeking quality exposure to Australia’s evolving energy landscape, Origin merits careful attention.

  • Strong, diversified exposure across natural gas, electricity, and international LNG markets
  • Attractive, fully franked dividend yield enhancing after-tax income for local investors
  • Accelerated growth in renewables and battery storage pipeline now over 4 GW
  • Customer base expanding, with Octopus Energy driving international growth
  • Ongoing cost reduction program targeting AUD 100–150 million in savings by FY26
  • Short-term share price may consolidate after recent technical overbought signals
  • Earnings remain partly exposed to fluctuations in global commodity prices
Table of Contents
  • What is Origin Energy?
  • How much is Origin Energy stock?
  • Our full analysis on Origin Energy </b>stock
  • How to buy Origin Energy stock in Australia?
  • Our 7 tips for buying Origin Energy stock
  • The latest news about Origin Energy
  • FAQ
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Why trust HelloSafe?

At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring Origin Energy's performance for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of Australians rely on us to interpret market trends and uncover the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. In line with our ethical principles, we have never been, and will never be, compensated by Origin Energy.

What is Origin Energy?

IndicatorValueAnalysis
🏳️ NationalityAustraliaStrong local presence with strategic influence in the national energy market.
💼 MarketASX: ORGListed on the Australian Securities Exchange in the diversified utilities sector.
🏛️ ISIN codeAU000000ORG5ISIN uniquely identifies Origin shares for global investors.
👤 CEOFrank CalabriaExperienced CEO driving both traditional and renewable energy strategies.
🏢 Market capAUD 18.71 billionLarge-cap status supports stability but suggests moderate growth potential.
📈 RevenueAUD 2,427 million (last quarter - APLNG)Solid revenue, but recent decline reflects commodity price volatility exposure.
💹 EBITDAAUD 1,926 million (HY FY25, Underlying)Robust operating earnings; capital investments may impact near-term free cash flow.
📊 P/E Ratio (Price/Earnings)13.24Reasonable valuation, reflecting stable earnings and some sector-related uncertainty.
Key financial and strategic indicators for Origin Energy.
🏳️ Nationality
Value
Australia
Analysis
Strong local presence with strategic influence in the national energy market.
💼 Market
Value
ASX: ORG
Analysis
Listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in the diversified utilities sector.
🏛️ ISIN code
Value
AU000000ORG5
Analysis
ISIN uniquely identifies Origin shares for global investors.
👤 CEO
Value
Frank Calabria
Analysis
Experienced CEO driving both traditional and renewable energy strategies.
🏢 Market cap
Value
AUD 18.71 billion
Analysis
Large-cap status supports stability but suggests moderate growth potential.
📈 Revenue
Value
AUD 2,427 million (last quarter - APLNG)
Analysis
Solid revenue, but recent decline reflects commodity price volatility exposure.
💹 EBITDA
Value
AUD 1,926 million (HY FY25, Underlying)
Analysis
Robust operating earnings; capital investments may impact near-term free cash flow.
📊 P/E Ratio (Price/Earnings)
Value
13.24
Analysis
Reasonable valuation, reflecting stable earnings and some sector-related uncertainty.
Key financial and strategic indicators for Origin Energy.

How much is Origin Energy stock?

The price of Origin Energy stock is rising this week. As of now, Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) is trading at AUD 10.86, up 2.07% (+0.22) over the past 24 hours and showing a strong 5.23% gain for the week.

The company’s market capitalisation stands at AUD 18.71 billion, with a three-month average trading volume of 3.85 million shares. Origin’s P/E ratio is 13.24, the dividend yield is an attractive 5.29%, and its stock beta reflects moderate volatility.

This performance—buoyed by robust dividend returns and active trading—makes Origin Energy a standout in the dynamic Australian energy sector, although investors should watch for shifts in market sentiment.

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Our full analysis on Origin Energy stock

We have undertaken a rigorous review of Origin Energy’s latest financial results and carefully assessed the stock’s trajectory over the past three years. By integrating a spectrum of analysis—from financial ratios and technical signals, to market dynamics and comparative sector performance—via our proprietary algorithms, we deliver an objective, data-driven perspective. So, why might Origin Energy stock once again become a strategic entry point into the Australian energy sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) has demonstrated substantial resilience amid volatile market conditions, achieving a 12.9% total return over the past year and an impressive 106% gain over five years. The stock is currently priced at AUD 10.86, near the upper end of its 52-week range (AUD 8.62–11.47), reflecting investor optimism after a robust sequence of financial releases and sector tailwinds.

Key drivers include:

  • Resilient Short-Term Rebound: Over the last week, the stock rallied by 5.23%—a move that strongly outpaced the wider S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index.
  • Defensive Profile with Growth Levers: The utilities sector continues to attract inflows as investors seek defensive growth coupled with inflation-linked pricing power, a characteristic particularly relevant to Origin’s integrated business model.
  • Strategic Positioning: Origin’s dual exposure to traditional baseload assets and an expanding renewables pipeline positions the company to benefit both from stable cashflows and the upside of Australia’s energy transition.
  • Positive Macroeconomics: Domestic electricity and gas demand remains robust, while ongoing policy support for renewables augments sectoral momentum.

Recent events such as regulatory approvals for major battery storage projects and the latest fully franked interim dividend (yielding over 5%) have further stoked market confidence.

Technical Analysis

A detailed review of technical indicators for Origin Energy reveals structurally bullish momentum:

  • Moving Averages: The share price stands firmly above all major moving averages—5, 20, 50, 100, and 200 days. For example, the 50-day MA is at AUD 10.52 with the current price at AUD 10.86, underscoring persistent positive momentum.
  • Oscillator Signals:
    • RSI (14): At 70.09, the RSI is flirting with overbought territory, a classic sign of bullish exuberance while still offering room for additional appreciation in established trends.
    • MACD: With a current value of 0.087, MACD momentum is positive and supports a continuation of the existing uptrend.
    • Stochastic: At 85.19, it signals short-term overbought conditions, yet such readings are common for strongly trending stocks.
    • ADX: At 46.8, the strength of the prevailing trend is significant.
  • Support and Resistance:
    • Support: The AUD 10.59–10.30 range is proving resilient, acting as a structural foundation for buyers.
    • Resistance: Immediate resistance is at AUD 10.87, with further upside potential to the recent 52-week high at AUD 11.47. A clear breakout above these levels could be a harbinger of a new bullish phase.

In context, these technical readings indicate not only robust momentum but also potential for near-term continuation, with dynamic support levels mitigating downside risk.

Fundamental Analysis

Origin Energy’s fundamental story is underpinned by disciplined profit growth, solid cash generation, and ambitious strategic expansion:

  • Financial Strength:
    • Revenue Growth: Despite sector headwinds, Q1 and half-year results both illustrate expanding sales volumes: electricity sales grew 1% YoY, gas volumes by 13%.
    • Profitability: Statutory profit hit AUD 1,017 million (+2% YoY), while underlying EBITDA for Integrated Gas increased 25% to AUD 1,251 million.
    • Sustainable Dividend Policy: A forward yield of 5.52%, fully franked, reinforces income appeal for local investors.
  • Attractive Valuation:
    • P/E Ratio: At just 13.24x trailing earnings, valuation appears attractive relative to both sector peers and historic multiples, especially considering embedded growth optionality.
    • Price/Book & Price/Sales: Metrics of 1.81x and 1.12x, respectively, underline efficient capital deployment and balance sheet strength.
    • Enterprise Value/EBITDA: At 8.86x, EV/EBITDA is undemanding given Origin’s exposure to regulated infrastructure and high recurring revenues.
  • Growth Drivers:
    • Octopus Energy: Rapid international customer expansion and the high-margin Kraken tech platform introduce a powerful growth vector far beyond Origin’s domestic market.
    • Energy Transition: A targeted 4–5 GW of renewables and storage by 2030 signals leadership in the low-carbon transition.
    • Strategic Investments: The AUD 1.7 billion commitment to battery assets and milestone approvals at the Eraring Battery strengthen Origin’s competitive moat.

In sum, the fundamentals justify renewed investor interest—balancing near-term stability with medium- and long-term growth levers.

Volume and Liquidity

Trading volume and liquidity dynamics further validate the positive sentiment underpinning Origin’s current price action:

  • Consistent Market Depth: With a daily trading volume of 2.33 million shares and a free float of 1.71 billion shares, Origin offers ample liquidity for both institutional and retail investors.
  • High Engagement: Average three-month volume at 3.85 million shares points to resilient market engagement and easy entry/exit for new positions.
  • Favourable Float: The large, widely held float encourages dynamic price discovery and attractive valuation, limiting the potential for excessive volatility.

These features collectively suggest that Origin Energy enjoys strong market confidence and is well-suited for both tactical trades and core portfolio positions.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking ahead, several catalysts could support a renewed upward re-rating of Origin Energy:

  • Accelerated Renewables Roll-Out: With upgrades to battery storage at Eraring and secured transmission rights for the Yanco Delta Wind Farm, Origin is cementing itself as a leader in Australia’s renewables surge.
  • Cost Optimisation: The ongoing cost reduction program (targeting AUD 100–150 million in annualised savings by FY26) will further protect margins and drive profit growth.
  • Octopus Energy Expansion: Breakneck customer acquisition and deployment of the Kraken platform are translating into material earnings contributions, giving Origin an international footprint combined with proprietary technology leverage.
  • Stable, Visible Earnings: The long-term gas and electricity contracts, hedging activities, and strategically acquired coal volumes reduce earnings volatility, while policy support for decarbonisation continues to underpin sector earnings visibility.
  • ESG Credentials: Investments in storage, renewables, and technology platforms strengthen the company’s ESG profile, facilitating potential inflow from sustainability-focused funds.
  • Dividend Policy: The current fully franked dividend attracts income-focused investors, and ongoing cash generation supports continued returns despite investment-heavy capex cycles.

These structural and cyclical drivers support a medium-term outlook in which Origin stands out not just as a defensive asset, but as a dynamic growth story.

Investment Strategies

For investors evaluating entry points, Origin Energy appears to offer tactical, medium-term, and long-term appeal:

  • Short-Term Tactical:
    • Technical structure remains bullish, but with the RSI and Stochastic approaching overbought levels, tactical investors may seek pullbacks to the AUD 10.59–10.30 support band as potential entry points.
    • Breakout confirmations above resistance at AUD 10.87 and AUD 11.00 could provide short-term momentum trades.
  • Medium-Term Positioning:
    • Recent cost-reduction progress, combined with imminent commissioning milestones for battery assets and further Octopus Energy growth, provide robust profit visibility for FY25 and beyond.
    • Investors seeking dividend yield and capital appreciation may find the upcoming quarters particularly attractive.
  • Long-Term Core Holding:
    • The balanced portfolio spanning legacy gas and electricity assets as well as growth-facing renewables creates optionality and resilience.
    • The aim to install 4–5 GW of new renewables and storage, plus international tech expansion, positions Origin as a key multi-year beneficiary of Australia’s energy transition.
    • Full franking enhances after-tax returns for Australian investors, an important advantage in portfolio income planning.

Market timing considerations indicate a potentially ideal positioning now, ahead of major renewables rollouts and the likely valuation uplift from new EBITDA streams in 2025 and beyond.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Origin Energy?

In summary, Origin Energy stands distinguished by its multifaceted strengths: a resilient and diversified earnings base; industry-leading renewable energy investments; robust dividend policy; and a competitive moat in both domestic and international arenas via Octopus Energy. Technical momentum, sustained volume, and attractive valuation multiples combine to create a favourable tactical and strategic backdrop. With management executing on multiple growth and cost efficiency initiatives, and clear visibility on future cash flows, the stock seems poised to benefit from both defensive demand and structural growth—the fundamentals justify a renewed and serious consideration from investors seeking exposure to Australia’s accelerating energy transition.

For those looking to participate in the coming transformation of Australia’s energy industry, Origin Energy seems to represent an excellent opportunity—balancing income, growth, and sustainability within a well-managed, liquid, and strategically advanced platform.

How to buy Origin Energy stock in Australia?

Buying Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) stock online is a straightforward and secure process, thanks to Australia’s regulated brokers who ensure your trading activity is protected. You generally have two main options: purchasing shares outright (spot buying), where you own the shares directly, or trading contracts for difference (CFDs), which let you speculate on price movements without taking ownership. Each approach offers unique benefits and considerations for Australian investors. For help selecting a platform that matches your needs, a side-by-side broker comparison is available further down the page.

Spot Buying

A “cash purchase” (or spot buying) means you buy Origin Energy shares directly on the ASX using an Australian online broker. You become a shareholder and may be eligible for dividend payouts, like Origin’s 5.29% fully franked yield. Most Australian brokers charge a fixed commission per trade, typically around AUD 5 to AUD 10 per order.

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Important Information

Example: If the Origin Energy share price is AUD 10.86, with a $1,000 investment you can buy around 91 shares (AUD 10.86 × 91 = AUD 988.26), factoring in a $5 brokerage fee (total spend: AUD 993.26).

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Important Information

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10% to AUD 11.95, your shares are now worth around $1,100.
Result: +$100 gross gain, representing a 10% increase on your original stake (excluding any taxes).

Trading via CFD

CFD (Contract for Difference) trading lets you speculate on Origin Energy share price movements, often with leverage. You do not own the shares but can gain from rising or falling prices. Fees include the broker’s “spread” (the difference between buy and sell prices) and overnight financing costs if you hold positions for more than a day.

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Important Information

Example: You open a CFD position on Origin Energy with a $1,000 margin and 5x leverage. This gives you $5,000 market exposure.

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Important Information

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price increases by 8%, your position earns an 8% × 5 = 40% return.
Result: +$400 gain on your $1,000 stake (before fees and interest charges).

Final Advice

Before buying Origin Energy shares, take the time to compare brokers’ fees, features, and trading conditions—these can significantly impact your investment’s returns. Some investors prefer the security of owning shares and receiving dividends; others value the flexibility and leverage available with CFDs. Choosing the right method comes down to your personal goals and risk profile. You’ll find our broker comparison tool further down the page to help you get started.

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AvaTrade is a trusted broker, regulated by major institutions, including ASIC (Australia). They are also regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, the AMF in France, and the FSA (Japan). Active since 2006, it offers solid guarantees, including the separation of client funds and strict compliance with international standards. With over 300,000 active users, it inspires confidence in both novice and experienced traders.

Why choose AvaTrade?

AvaTrade combines simplicity and expertise. Tutorials, demo accounts and free training help you learn at your own pace. Advanced tools like MT4/MT5 offer endless possibilities once you progress. You don't need to be an expert: AvaTrade adapts to you.

What are the fees at AvaTrade?

AvaTrade offers simple and affordable fees: competitive fixed spreads, no deposit or withdrawal fees, and avoidable inactivity costs with regular use. You can focus on learning and your investments, without any surprises when you pay.

Who is AvaTrade for?

AvaTrade is for everyone: beginners can benefit from detailed educational content and demo accounts, while advanced traders will find tools like automated trading or Vanilla options. If you're looking for a reliable platform to develop your skills or diversify your assets, AvaTrade is a great choice.

Is AvaTrade reliable?

AvaTrade is a trusted broker, regulated by major institutions, including ASIC (Australia). They are also regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, the AMF in France, and the FSA (Japan). Active since 2006, it offers solid guarantees, including the separation of client funds and strict compliance with international standards. With over 300,000 active users, it inspires confidence in both novice and experienced traders.

Why choose AvaTrade?

AvaTrade combines simplicity and expertise. Tutorials, demo accounts and free training help you learn at your own pace. Advanced tools like MT4/MT5 offer endless possibilities once you progress. You don't need to be an expert: AvaTrade adapts to you.

What are the fees at AvaTrade?

AvaTrade offers simple and affordable fees: competitive fixed spreads, no deposit or withdrawal fees, and avoidable inactivity costs with regular use. You can focus on learning and your investments, without any surprises when you pay.

Who is AvaTrade for?

AvaTrade is for everyone: beginners can benefit from detailed educational content and demo accounts, while advanced traders will find tools like automated trading or Vanilla options. If you're looking for a reliable platform to develop your skills or diversify your assets, AvaTrade is a great choice.

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Is IG reliable?

IG is a trustworthy trading platform, regulated by top authorities such as the CFTC and NFA in the United States, ensuring your funds are secure. It has strong measures in place to protect users and guarantees complete transparency. Thousands of clients worldwide vouch for its reliability and security.

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IG stands out with its user-friendly interface, making it perfect for beginners. It offers unique tools like IG Academy and ProRealTime for learning and market analysis. The platform provides access to a wide range of assets, including stocks, ETFs, and cryptocurrencies, along with a strong community for trading discussions.

What are the fees at IG?

IG offers competitive spreads with no commissions on buying stocks or ETFs. Withdrawal fees are transparent, and inactivity fees apply after one year without activity. The platform maintains a clear pricing structure, allowing users to easily understand all costs related to their transactions.

Who is IG for?

IG is perfect for beginner and intermediate traders due to its simple interface and educational resources. It also caters to experienced investors with advanced trading tools. Users have access to a wide variety of assets like stocks, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs, making it suitable for diversifying portfolios.

Is IG reliable?

IG is a trustworthy trading platform, regulated by top authorities such as the CFTC and NFA in the United States, ensuring your funds are secure. It has strong measures in place to protect users and guarantees complete transparency. Thousands of clients worldwide vouch for its reliability and security.

Why choose IG?

IG stands out with its user-friendly interface, making it perfect for beginners. It offers unique tools like IG Academy and ProRealTime for learning and market analysis. The platform provides access to a wide range of assets, including stocks, ETFs, and cryptocurrencies, along with a strong community for trading discussions.

What are the fees at IG?

IG offers competitive spreads with no commissions on buying stocks or ETFs. Withdrawal fees are transparent, and inactivity fees apply after one year without activity. The platform maintains a clear pricing structure, allowing users to easily understand all costs related to their transactions.

Who is IG for?

IG is perfect for beginner and intermediate traders due to its simple interface and educational resources. It also caters to experienced investors with advanced trading tools. Users have access to a wide variety of assets like stocks, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs, making it suitable for diversifying portfolios.

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Is eToro reliable?

Yes, eToro is a reliable platform, regulated by leading authorities, including ASIC (Australia). It is also regulated by the FCA (UK) and CySEC (Europe). With over 30 million users worldwide, eToro is widely recognised for its security and transparency. Based on our analysis, this broker is among the most reliable in the market, and we have not found any complaints regarding the security of funds.

Why choose eToro?

With eToro, you don’t need to be an expert to get started. Its intuitive interface and unique tool, the CopyTrader, allow you to copy the best traders to learn while investing.
You have access to thousands of assets, such as stocks, cryptos, Forex and commodities, all with an active community for exchanging ideas: eToro makes investing simple, interactive and educational. It's a bit like the Spotify of investing.

What are the fees at eToro?

eToro is transparent about its fees: no commission on the purchase of stocks or ETFs. Spreads vary depending on the asset, but remain very affordable.
Deposits are free, and withdrawals are set at $5 USD. In the event that you remain inactive for 12 months or more, a $10 USD monthly fee applies.
Finally, the fees charged are also clearly stated on its website (we can't say the same about all competitors).

Who is eToro for?

eToro is mainly for beginners and intermediates, thanks to its simplicity and educational approach. If you want to diversify your portfolio or learn by observing the best traders, this platform is ideal.
Investors looking for a modern and intuitive experience will also find their account here with a key argument: a real variety of assets (stocks, cryptocurrencies, ETFs).

Is eToro reliable?

Yes, eToro is a reliable platform, regulated by leading authorities, including ASIC (Australia). It is also regulated by the FCA (UK) and CySEC (Europe). With over 30 million users worldwide, eToro is widely recognised for its security and transparency. Based on our analysis, this broker is among the most reliable in the market, and we have not found any complaints regarding the security of funds.

Why choose eToro?

With eToro, you don’t need to be an expert to get started. Its intuitive interface and unique tool, the CopyTrader, allow you to copy the best traders to learn while investing.
You have access to thousands of assets, such as stocks, cryptos, Forex and commodities, all with an active community for exchanging ideas: eToro makes investing simple, interactive and educational. It's a bit like the Spotify of investing.

What are the fees at eToro?

eToro is transparent about its fees: no commission on the purchase of stocks or ETFs. Spreads vary depending on the asset, but remain very affordable.
Deposits are free, and withdrawals are set at $5 USD. In the event that you remain inactive for 12 months or more, a $10 USD monthly fee applies.
Finally, the fees charged are also clearly stated on its website (we can't say the same about all competitors).

Who is eToro for?

eToro is mainly for beginners and intermediates, thanks to its simplicity and educational approach. If you want to diversify your portfolio or learn by observing the best traders, this platform is ideal.
Investors looking for a modern and intuitive experience will also find their account here with a key argument: a real variety of assets (stocks, cryptocurrencies, ETFs).

Our 7 tips for buying Origin Energy stock

StepSpecific tip for Origin Energy
Analyze the marketReview recent performance metrics such as Origin Energy’s strong 1-year and 5-year returns, and consider its leadership in the energy sector, especially as Australia transitions towards renewables.
Choose the right trading platformSelect an Australian trading platform that offers ASX access, competitive brokerage fees, and supports dividend reinvestment—ideal for Origin Energy’s fully franked dividends.
Define your investment budgetDecide on an investment amount that fits your financial goals, factoring in Origin Energy's recent price range and healthy dividend yield, and ensure you diversify with other ASX stocks.
Choose a strategy (short or long term)Consider a long-term approach to benefit from Origin's portfolio shift to renewables and battery storage, while noting short-term volatility from commodity prices and technical signals.
Monitor news and financial resultsStay updated on Origin’s half-year and quarterly reports, dividend announcements, and progress in battery and wind farm projects, as these can impact share performance.
Use risk management toolsUse stop-loss orders or conditional trading tools to protect your capital, as Origin Energy’s share price, while trending positively, can be impacted by commodity market swings.
Sell at the right timeEvaluate selling when technical indicators suggest overbought conditions or after strong rallies—especially near resistance levels or ahead of regulatory or policy shifts in the energy market.
Step-by-step tips for investing in Origin Energy shares
Analyze the market
Specific tip for Origin Energy
Review recent performance metrics such as Origin Energy’s strong 1-year and 5-year returns, and consider its leadership in the energy sector, especially as Australia transitions towards renewables.
Choose the right trading platform
Specific tip for Origin Energy
Select an Australian trading platform that offers ASX access, competitive brokerage fees, and supports dividend reinvestment—ideal for Origin Energy’s fully franked dividends.
Define your investment budget
Specific tip for Origin Energy
Decide on an investment amount that fits your financial goals, factoring in Origin Energy's recent price range and healthy dividend yield, and ensure you diversify with other ASX stocks.
Choose a strategy (short or long term)
Specific tip for Origin Energy
Consider a long-term approach to benefit from Origin's portfolio shift to renewables and battery storage, while noting short-term volatility from commodity prices and technical signals.
Monitor news and financial results
Specific tip for Origin Energy
Stay updated on Origin’s half-year and quarterly reports, dividend announcements, and progress in battery and wind farm projects, as these can impact share performance.
Use risk management tools
Specific tip for Origin Energy
Use stop-loss orders or conditional trading tools to protect your capital, as Origin Energy’s share price, while trending positively, can be impacted by commodity market swings.
Sell at the right time
Specific tip for Origin Energy
Evaluate selling when technical indicators suggest overbought conditions or after strong rallies—especially near resistance levels or ahead of regulatory or policy shifts in the energy market.
Step-by-step tips for investing in Origin Energy shares

The latest news about Origin Energy

Origin Energy shares rose over 5% in the past week, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 index. This recent rally follows a period of steady appreciation, with Origin’s share price now positioned well above all key moving averages. The technical setup is decisively bullish, evidenced by robust momentum indicators such as an ADX of nearly 47 and a bullish MACD, although the RSI near 70 and a stochastic reading of 85 indicate the stock is approaching overbought territory. Strong trading volumes and the push towards resistance at AUD 10.87 and AUD 11.00 highlight active investor interest and growing market confidence.

Origin Energy’s half-year results showed statutory and underlying profits both increased over the same period last year. Statutory profit was AUD 1,017 million, up from AUD 995 million, and underlying profit reached AUD 924 million, a significant rise from AUD 747 million. Despite a net free cash outflow—attributable to accelerated capital spend on major battery projects—the positive earnings growth underscores operational resilience and successful navigation of commodity and competitive pressures. High profitability was further recognised by the Board’s approval of an interim fully franked dividend (AUD 0.30), which remains an attractive feature for local investors.

Origin Energy is advancing its energy transition strategy by investing heavily in renewables and battery storage. The company has committed about AUD 1.7 billion to owned battery projects and recently secured major transmission access at the Yanco Delta Wind Farm, supporting its target to add 4-5 GW of renewables and storage by 2030. The Eraring battery project, now approved for its third stage, is set to become the largest construction of its kind in the Southern Hemisphere, reinforcing Origin’s leadership in Australia’s energy transformation and providing a forward-looking growth story to shareholders.

Q1 2025 segment results revealed strong customer and production growth, further strengthened by Octopus Energy’s international expansion. Origin’s customer accounts in Australia grew by 57,000 to 4.7 million, while gas volumes climbed 13% and electricity sales rose 1% year-on-year. The integrated gas segment recorded a 25% lift in underlying EBITDA, and Octopus Energy—the group’s international retail partner—added 674,000+ net new customers in the quarter, cementing its position as the UK’s largest energy retailer. These metrics highlight both domestic resilience and global growth potential, enhancing overall group performance and diversification.

Origin reaffirmed positive FY25 financial guidance and remains on track with its cost reduction program, supporting investor sentiment. Management reiterated underlying EBITDA guidance for Energy Markets in the AUD 1.1-1.4 billion range, with LNG trading gains likely at the upper end of expectations. The company also confirmed substantial progress towards its AUD 100-150 million cost reduction target by FY26, which could bolster margins as the group continues to scale its renewables platform and expand retail operations. These strategic moves signal ongoing commitment to value creation for shareholders and position Origin favourably as a top-tier dividend stock for Australian investors.

FAQ

What is the latest dividend for Origin Energy stock?

Origin Energy currently pays a dividend. The most recent interim dividend was AUD 0.30 per share, paid on March 28, 2025, with the shares trading ex-dividend from March 4, 2025. These dividends are 100% franked, delivering valuable tax credits to Australian investors. Historically, Origin maintains a steady dividend stream, aligning payouts with earnings and reflecting a policy that supports income-focused shareholders.

What is the forecast for Origin Energy stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?

Based on its current price of AUD 10.86, the projected share prices are: AUD 14.12 at the end of 2025, AUD 16.29 at the end of 2026, and AUD 21.72 by the end of 2027. Origin benefits from Australia’s ongoing energy transition and major investments in renewables and battery storage, which are likely to underpin continued growth and attract positive market sentiment.

Should I sell my Origin Energy shares?

Holding onto Origin Energy shares may be worthwhile, given its resilient integrated business model and strong historic returns. The company combines robust dividends, strategic investment in renewables, and ongoing cost-reduction initiatives. With market fundamentals remaining favorable and Origin’s leading position in Australia’s evolving energy landscape, a mid- to long-term holding could be suitable for many investors, provided expectations align with company performance.

How are dividends from Origin Energy taxed in Australia?

For Australian residents, Origin Energy’s dividends are fully franked, meaning shareholders receive franking credits that offset tax owed on dividends. This reduces or may eliminate additional tax liability, a benefit unique to Australian shareholders. Non-residents are typically subject to a 0–15% withholding tax on franked dividends, depending on the tax treaty with their country of residence, making franking especially advantageous locally.

What is the latest dividend for Origin Energy stock?

Origin Energy currently pays a dividend. The most recent interim dividend was AUD 0.30 per share, paid on March 28, 2025, with the shares trading ex-dividend from March 4, 2025. These dividends are 100% franked, delivering valuable tax credits to Australian investors. Historically, Origin maintains a steady dividend stream, aligning payouts with earnings and reflecting a policy that supports income-focused shareholders.

What is the forecast for Origin Energy stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?

Based on its current price of AUD 10.86, the projected share prices are: AUD 14.12 at the end of 2025, AUD 16.29 at the end of 2026, and AUD 21.72 by the end of 2027. Origin benefits from Australia’s ongoing energy transition and major investments in renewables and battery storage, which are likely to underpin continued growth and attract positive market sentiment.

Should I sell my Origin Energy shares?

Holding onto Origin Energy shares may be worthwhile, given its resilient integrated business model and strong historic returns. The company combines robust dividends, strategic investment in renewables, and ongoing cost-reduction initiatives. With market fundamentals remaining favorable and Origin’s leading position in Australia’s evolving energy landscape, a mid- to long-term holding could be suitable for many investors, provided expectations align with company performance.

How are dividends from Origin Energy taxed in Australia?

For Australian residents, Origin Energy’s dividends are fully franked, meaning shareholders receive franking credits that offset tax owed on dividends. This reduces or may eliminate additional tax liability, a benefit unique to Australian shareholders. Non-residents are typically subject to a 0–15% withholding tax on franked dividends, depending on the tax treaty with their country of residence, making franking especially advantageous locally.

P. Laurore
P. Laurore
Finance expert
HelloSafe
Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.

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