Should I buy Rio Tinto stock in Australia in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been tracking the performance of Rio Tinto for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in Australia trust us to analyse market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes and do not constitute investment advice. In accordance with our ethical charter, we have never been, and will never be, compensated by Rio Tinto.

What is Rio Tinto?

The price of Rio Tinto stock

The price of Rio Tinto stock is rising this week. Currently trading at $59.02 USD, Rio Tinto saw a 1.93% decrease over the last 24 hours but posted a +0.75% gain for the week. The company has a market capitalisation of $97.83 billion USD with an average 3-month volume of 3.41 million shares. Its P/E ratio stands at 8.35, complemented by a strong 6.89% dividend yield and a moderate beta of 0.63. This combination of robust yield and relatively low volatility highlights Rio Tinto's appeal as a stable option for Australian investors seeking long-term value.

Our full analysis of the Rio Tinto stock

We have thoroughly reviewed Rio Tinto’s latest financial results, integrating its stock’s three-year trajectory with in-depth analysis of financial indicators, technical signals, market behaviour, and peer benchmarking through our proprietary algorithms. Our attention to leading metrics and industry trends enables us to uncover strengths and critical catalysts often missed in classic reviews. So, why might Rio Tinto stock once again become a strategic entry point into the industrial resources and energy transition sector in 2025?

Recent performance and market context

Rio Tinto has demonstrated notable resilience and relative outperformance in a complex macroeconomic landscape, ending the most recent session at $59.02 USD per share. Despite a short-term intraday dip of 1.93%, the weekly gain of +0.75% underlines a stabilisation in buying momentum as the broader ASX resources sector sees renewed inflows. Over the last six months, the stock has posted a modest +0.43% advance, and while the one-year move stands at -10.59%, this is squarely in line with cyclical pressures in the iron ore segment—contextualized by resilient profitability and expanding end-markets. The company’s $97.83 billion USD market capitalization cements its blue-chip status and anchors it among Australia’s and the globe’s preeminent mining firms. Notably, a consensus price target from leading analysts of $75.94 USD (≈29% upside) reflects a positive medium-term backdrop, while Rio Tinto’s recent strategic investments in lithium and copper position it perfectly to benefit from energy transition and electrification megatrends. In the last twelve months, Rio Tinto has also received renewed interest from institutional funds in Australia, as evidenced by strong bid volumes around technical support levels,. This institutional presence is both a testament to confidence and a catalyst for continued re-rating.

On the corporate front, several recent milestones build the bullish case. The confirmation of a major lithium partnership in Chile and a $2.5 billion USD investment to expand the Rincon lithium project in Argentina marks Rio Tinto’s targeted dedication to critical minerals beyond its world-class iron ore operations. Meanwhile, ongoing guidance for copper production—expected to surge more than 50% in 2025—signals that Rio Tinto is executing effectively on its portfolio transition, leveraging both organic and inorganic growth drivers. Even leadership transition, with CEO Jakob Stausholm staying through 2025 and a careful succession process underway, has been handled proactively, limiting uncertainty while ensuring continuity.

The macro backdrop also provides fresh tailwinds. With global infrastructure stimulus, the accelerating energy transition, and resolute policy support for decarbonisation, demand for Rio Tinto’s core products—iron ore, copper, aluminium, and lithium—is underpinned by multi-decade thematics. The Australian market stands to benefit from a strong export pipeline and regional trade ties—especially as China stabilises and emerging markets ramp up metals demand. These intersecting forces position Rio Tinto to leverage both volume and pricing opportunities and ensure sustainability in cash flows despite commodity price noise.

Technical analysis

Technical structure confirms that Rio Tinto is entering a period of renewed upside potential. The most recent close at $59.02 is above the 200-day moving average ($59.6), and just below the 50-day ($60.4)—illustrating a consolidating but positive set-up where the shorter-term average remains higher, indicating underlying bullishness (“golden cross” confirmed in previous sessions). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39.22 just exited oversold territory, supporting the thesis of a technical rebound. Meanwhile, MACD readings, while showing a recent negative cross (-0.50), are stabilising, and buying signals are beginning to emerge as the stock finds traction at strong support near $51.67 (52-week low); the clear resistance at $72.08 (52-week high) provides ambitious targets for bullish momentum. Volume-based technicals and a recent “pocket pivot” confirm that upward price reversals have been met with institutional participation. Over the coming weeks, traders will be watching for any move above the 50-day moving average and decisive RSI improvements to further confirm a new bullish phase.

Fundamental analysis

Rio Tinto boasts robust fundamentals that more than justify the renewed interest. For 2024, the group delivered revenues of $53.66 billion USD, supported by a landmark EBITDA of $23.3 billion USD and net profits of $11.55 billion USD—despite iron ore prices falling 11% over the period. This attests to Rio Tinto’s exceptional cost discipline and pricing power, as well as best-in-class margin protection (21.53% net margin), even during periods of softening commodity prices. The company’s P/E ratio of 8.35 is appealingly well below the sector and historical averages, offering value in a market where quality growth stocks have become increasingly expensive. The dividend yield of 6.89% is especially compelling, supported by a conservative balance sheet and a long history of shareholder payouts, including fully franked dividends particularly attractive to Australian residents.

Growth isn’t one-dimensional: Rio Tinto is actively expanding EMEA and Americas’ lithium and copper exposure, cementing its status as a pivotal supplier to the green energy and electric vehicle revolution. Assets in Australia, which comprise the Pilbara iron ore mines, remain best-in-class and operate at a scale few peers can match, while logistics infrastructure provides supply chain advantages that underpin both cost and speed to end markets. The company is also making compelling inroads into rare earth minerals and high-value commodities, enhancing diversification and mitigating volatility risk from any single product line. Brand strength, operational excellence, and a culture of innovation—from digital mine automation to decarbonisation—reinforce the sustainability of Rio Tinto’s competitive edge.

Volume and liquidity

Trading volume remains robust, with a 3-month average above 3.4 million shares per day, supporting deep liquidity and efficient price discovery. This high level of transactional activity attracts institutional investors and sophisticated traders, contributing to tight spreads and minimal slippage even for larger orders. Rio Tinto’s large free float and inclusion in flagship indices (ASX 200, FTSE 100, and NYSE benchmarks) further enhance appeal for Australian and global portfolio managers seeking liquidity and benchmark-aligned allocations. There is ample evidence that liquidity has underpinned relative price stability throughout sector downturns while magnifying upside moves in bullish regimes.

Catalysts and positive outlook

Looking ahead, Rio Tinto benefits from a host of powerful catalysts—both company-driven and sector-wide. First, the strategic shift to future-facing commodities ensures a central role in decarbonisation supply chains: lithium, copper, and rare earths enjoy secular demand from batteries, renewables, and next-generation electronics. The imminent ramp-up in copper production (+50% expected in 2025), fast-tracked lithium projects in Chile and Argentina, and the ongoing expansion of Pilbara replacement mines collectively offer visible, multi-year growth drivers.

On the innovation and ESG fronts, Rio Tinto continues to lead: ambitious emissions-reduction targets, best-practice community engagement, and critical certifications are quickly becoming industry standards that strengthen social license and grant access to new capital pools. M&A activity is prudent and accretive, with a recent focus on consolidating high-performing operations and exiting legacy projects with regulatory or reputational risk. Furthermore, the geopolitical premium placed on tier-1, low-risk supply—especially from Australia—greatly favours Rio Tinto relative to higher-risk emerging market peers.

Sectorally, the overall mood is constructive: massive public and private investment in clean energy, infrastructure, and electrification fuels commodity demand across multi-year horizons. Evolving regulatory frameworks in Australia increasingly favour responsible miners, and capital markets are rewarding those who can deliver both growth and ESG compliance. Market sentiment has turned cautiously optimistic, with leading broker upgrades and price target reassessments amplifying upside.

Investment strategies

• Short-term: Entry near established technical supports ($51.67–$59.02) with a view towards mean-reversion or upside moves toward resistance ($72.08) aligns with recent price action and institutional accumulation. Favourable dividend ex-dates or positive production updates can generate rapid repricing.
• Medium-term: The convergence of technical, fundamental, and macro catalysts over the coming quarters—especially the ramp-up of copper, lithium, and rare earths—supports holding through 2025, anticipating a sector re-rating as decarbonisation and infrastructure booms intensify.
• Long-term: For portfolio builders, Rio Tinto offers a rare marriage of income and growth. The stock stands as a core holding due to its world-class asset base, best-in-sector yields, and the outsized role it will play in global energy transition strategies over the coming decade. Its disciplined capital allocation, sustainability leadership, and proven resilience through cycles only add to its long-term appeal.
• For tactical investors, current consolidation below key moving averages offers an attractively asymmetric entry, while strategic investors are well rewarded to accumulate on dips and participate in future upswings driven by both company execution and sector tailwinds.

Is it the right time to buy Rio Tinto?

Taking a holistic perspective, Rio Tinto combines robust profitability, compelling valuation, strong balance sheet, and a powerful suite of future-facing catalysts. The company’s scale, operational excellence, and visionary positioning at the crossroads of infrastructure, technology, and energy transition provide confidence in sustained growth—even against a backdrop of cyclicality and market flux. The convergence of technical support, healthy liquidity, and bullish institutional signals means that Rio Tinto seems to represent an excellent opportunity for ASX investors seeking exposure to both value and growth in 2025.

In sum, the stock’s solid fundamentals, visible path to higher earnings, and macro-driven demand should justify renewed interest and may signal the start of a new bullish phase. For Australian investors looking to balance resilience, upside, and sustainability, Rio Tinto stands out as a strategic opportunity that is difficult to overlook this year.

How to buy Rio Tinto stock in Australia

Buying Rio Tinto stock online has become simple and secure for Australian investors. Most choose a regulated broker approved by ASIC, ensuring fund protection and transparent pricing. You can invest either by purchasing Rio Tinto shares directly (“spot buying”) to become a shareholder, or trade their price movements using CFDs (Contracts For Difference). Spot buying gives you ownership, while CFDs let you speculate with leverage. Each method has its own potential risks and rewards. To help you choose the right approach, a broker comparison table is available further down the page.

Cash buying

Cash buying means purchasing Rio Tinto shares outright through a securities account with a regulated broker. You pay the full value of the shares plus a fixed commission (typically $5 to $10 per order at major Australian brokers). This method is ideal for long-term investors seeking dividends and steady growth.

Gain Scenario Example

If the Rio Tinto share price is $142 AUD, you can buy around 7 shares with a $1,000 stake, including a brokerage fee of around $5.

Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth $1,100.
Result: +$100 gross gain, i.e. +10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading on Rio Tinto shares allows you to profit from movements in the share price without owning the shares. With CFDs, you trade using leverage—your broker only asks for a margin deposit, increasing your potential gains (and losses). The main fees are the bid-ask spread and possible overnight financing costs if you keep positions open for more than a day.

CFD Position with Leverage Example

You open a CFD position on Rio Tinto shares, with 5x leverage.

This gives you a market exposure of $5,000 for a $1,000 deposit.

✔️ Gain scenario:

If the stock rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: +$400 gain, on a bet of $1,000 (excluding fees).

Final advice

Before investing, always compare brokers’ costs (commissions, spreads, platform fees) and trading conditions. Both spot buying and CFDs can be managed conveniently online, but the ideal choice depends on your investment goals, risk appetite, and whether you prefer direct ownership or flexible trading. You’ll find a comprehensive broker comparison tool further down the page to make your decision easier.

Our 7 tips for buying Rio Tinto stock

The latest news about Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto’s share price rose 0.75% over the past week on the ASX, outperforming the sector index. This movement signals renewed confidence among Australian investors, supported by strong trading volumes and resilient demand for the miner’s main commodities, particularly iron ore and copper, which are critical to the country’s exports and industrial activity.

Rio Tinto confirmed ongoing investment in major Pilbara iron ore assets, strengthening its Australian operational leadership. The company highlighted significant progress in replacement projects and integration of new automation technologies, ensuring long-term viability and efficiency of its flagship Australian mines, which remain central to national supply chains and employment.

Expert analysis highlights Rio Tinto’s lithium and copper diversification as a source of medium-term strength. Recent updates underline robust project development in critical minerals both locally and abroad, with industry analysts noting that Australian projects in particular benefit from demand growth due to decarbonisation and clean energy initiatives within the AU market.

Rio Tinto’s dividend outlook remains attractive, with a 6.89% yield and flexibility for AUD payments for Australian holders. The policy of offering fully fungible dividends in AUD not only enhances Rio Tinto’s appeal to local investors, but also underscores the miner’s cash flow resilience, even in periods of commodity price swings.

Recent analyst consensus has shifted from neutral to mildly optimistic, driven by Australian operational resilience and sector tailwinds. Multiple brokerages have updated their outlooks following positive signals from the company’s Australian business, noting that strategic execution, cost management, and expansion into future-facing minerals align with national economic priorities and investor interests.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.